Veritex Holdings (Veritex Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Veritex Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Veritex Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Veritex Holdings (Veritex Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Veritex Holdings Inc (NAS:VBTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8214 Westchester Drive, Suite 800, Dallas, TX, USA, 75225

Website

https://www.veritexbank.com

Veritex Holdings Inc is engaged in the provision of commercial banking products and services to small to medium-sized businesses and professionals. The bank provides a range of banking services to individual and corporate customers, which include commercial and retail lending, and the acceptance of checking and savings deposits. It offers a suite of online banking solutions, including access to account balances, online transfers, online bill payment and electronic delivery of customer statements, as well as automated teller machines, and banking by telephone, mail and personal appointment. The company's primary sources of revenue are derived from interest and dividends earned on loans, debt and equity securities and other financial instruments.

Executives

Gregory B Morrison	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Martin Dominic Karaba	officer: Chief Banking Officer	1010 GRAND BLVD, KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Terry Earley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CRESCENT FINANCIAL BANCSHARES, INC., 1005 HIGH HOUSE ROAD, CARY NC 27513
Fallon William	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75225
Gordon Huddleston	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Pat S Bolin	director	5950 BERKSHIRE LANE, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75225
Cara Mcdaniel	officer: Chief Talent Officer	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75225
John Sughrue	director	1807 ROSS AVENUE, SUITE 250, DALLAS TX 75201
Phil Donnelly	officer: SEVP, General Counsel	8214 WESTCHESTER DR. SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75225
Michael Clayton Riebe	officer: Chief Credit Officer	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Holland C Malcolm Iii	director, officer: Chairman, CEO, President	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Arcilia Acosta	director	LEGACYTEXAS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5851 LEGACY CIRCLE, PLANO TX 75024
Jim Recer	officer: Chief Banking Officer	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75225
Manuel J Mehos	director	COASTAL BANCORP INC, 5718 WESTHEIMER SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77057
William Don Ellis	director	4000 GREENBRIAR, HOUSTON TX 77098