Vaxxinity (Vaxxinity) Predictability Rank

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What is Vaxxinity Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vaxxinity Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vaxxinity (Vaxxinity) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vaxxinity Inc (OTCPK:VAXX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

505 Odyssey Way, Merritt Island, FL, USA, 32953

Website

https://www.vaxxinity.com

Vaxxinity Inc is engaged in the development and commercialization of prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines to combat chronic disorders and infectious diseases with large patient populations and unmet medical needs. Its pipeline primarily consists of five programs focused on chronic disease, particularly neurodegenerative disorders, in addition to other neurology and cardiovascular indications.

Executives

Sumita Ray	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Prime Movers Lab Fund I Lp	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 12829, JACKSON WY 83002
Landon E Ogilvie	director	505 ODYSSEY WAY, EXPLORATION PARK FL 32953
Katherine A. Eade	director	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD #10, HOLLISTON MA 01746
James Alan Smith	director	505 ODYSSEY WAY, EXPLORATION PARK FL 32953
Gabrielle B Toledano	director	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Lou Reese	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O VAXXINITY, INC., 1717 MAIN ST STE. 3388, DALLAS TX 75201
Mei Mei Hu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O VAXXINITY, INC., 1717 MAIN ST STE. 3388, DALLAS TX 75201
United Biomedical Inc	10 percent owner	25 DAVIDS DR, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Dakin Sloss	10 percent owner	126 E 56TH ST, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter Powchik	director	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Jason Pesile	officer: See Remarks	C/O VAXXINITY, INC., 1717 MAIN ST. STE.3388, DALLAS TX 75201
George R Hornig	director	625 MADISON AVE SUITE 10-B, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Chui	director	C/O VAXXINITY, INC., 1717 MAIN ST STE. 3388, DALLAS TX 75201
Peter Diamandis	director	4640 ADMIRALTY WAY, SUITE 500, MARINA DEL REY CA 90292