What is Universal Security Instruments Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Universal Security Instruments Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Universal Security Instruments (Universal Security Instruments) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11407 Cronhill Drive, Suite A, Owings Mills, MD, USA, 21117
Universal Security Instruments Inc is a U.S based manufacturer and distributor of safety and security devices in the Peoples Republic of China . The company markets a line of residential smoke and carbon monoxide alarms under the trade names UNIVERSAL and USI Electric. It also markets products to the electrical distribution trade such as electrical and lighting distributors as well as manufactured housing companies. Its product portfolio consists of smoke and fire alarms, carbon monoxide alarms, multi-gas alarms, universal smoke sensing technology, and plug-in alarms.
Executives
| Bitnile Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141 |
| North Star Investment Management Corp. |
other: SEE NOTE 2 BELOW |
20 N. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE # 1416, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| North Star Micro Cap Fund |
10 percent owner |
80 ARKAY DRIVE, SUITE 110, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Ira Bormel |
director |
11407 CRONHILL DRIVE, SUITE A, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Harvey B Grossblatt |
director, officer: President, CEO |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Ronald A Seff |
director |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Howard B Silverman |
director |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Cary Luskin |
director |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Michael L Kovens |
10 percent owner |
6 REGENCY CT, BALTIMORE MD 21208 |
| James Ballard Huff |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Ronald S Lazarus |
10 percent owner |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
| Stephen C Knepper |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO |
7-A GWYNNS MILL COURT, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117 |
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