Upland Software (Upland Software) Predictability Rank

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What is Upland Software Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Upland Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Upland Software (Upland Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Upland Software Inc (NAS:UPLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

16U:Germany

Address

401 Congress Avenue, Suite 1850, Frost Bank Tower, Austin, TX, USA, 78701-3788

Website

https://www.uplandsoftware.com

Upland Software Inc is a provider of cloud-based enterprise work management software. The company provides a family of cloud-based enterprise work management software applications for the information technology, process excellence, finance, professional services and marketing functions within organizations. It services customers ranging from corporations and Government agencies to small- and medium-sized businesses engaged in the field of financial services, retail, technology, manufacturing, education, consumer goods, media, and telecommunications, Government, food and beverage, healthcare and life sciences, chemicals and travel and hospitality.

Executives

Stephen E Courter	director	C/O CADIZ INC., 550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, 2850, LOS ANGELES X1 90071
Dan Doman	officer: Chief Product Officer	401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Matthew Harnden Smith	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	3950 SHACKLEFORD RD., SUITE 400, DULUTH GA 30096
Yates Oliver Robert Macfarlane	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC., 401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Karen Cummings	officer: Executive VP & Senior GM	C/O OMTOOL, LTD., 8A INDUSTRIAL WAY, SALEM NH 03079
Michael Douglass Hill	officer: CFO	401 CONGRESS AVE, SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Paul Kenneth Miller	officer: Chief Operating Officer	401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Kinloch Iii Gill	officer: CLO	401 CONGRESS AVE., STE. 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
John T Mcdonald	director, officer: CEO	C/O UPLAND SOFTWARE INC., 401 CONGRESS AVE., SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Ian Burk	officer: Chief Business Officer	401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Hggc Fund Iv Gp, Ltd.	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE #%), PALO ALTO CA 94303
Ulysses Aggregator, Lp	10 percent owner	1950 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 350, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Chung David H S	director	10900 NE 8TH STREET, SUITE 800, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Rodney C Favaron	director	401 CONGRESS AVE., SUITE 1850, AUSTIN TX 78701
Fz-llc Devfactory	10 percent owner	705 AL THURAYA TOWER I, PO BOX 502091 MEDIA CITY, DUBAI C0 00000