United Community Banks (United Community Banks) Predictability Rank

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What is United Community Banks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Community Banks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

United Community Banks Predictability Rank Related Terms

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United Community Banks (United Community Banks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » United Community Banks Inc (NAS:UCBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UCBIO.PFD:USA

Address

125 Highway 515 East, Blairsville, GA, USA, 30512

Website

https://www.ucbi.com

United Community Banks Inc is a bank holding company that operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Union Community Bank. The bank has scores of offices throughout portions of Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. It has traditionally grown through the organic growth of existing offices and de novo locations, complemented by selective acquisitions. United conducts substantially all of its operations through a community-focused operating model of separate community banks. The community banks offer a full range of retail and corporate banking services, including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, as well as secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, brokerage services, and other financial services. The bank's loan portfolio is well-diversified but predominantly commercial.

Executives

Abraham Cox	officer: CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30512
Richard Bradshaw	officer: President, Specialized Lending	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
George B. Bell	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30512
Kenneth L Daniels	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30512
Holly N Berry	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
H Lynn Harton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30512
Robert H Blalock	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Jennifer M. Bazante	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Robert A. Edwards	officer: EVP, CHIEF CREDIT OFFICER	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Jefferson L Harralson	officer: EVP, CFO	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Alan H Kumler	officer: VP & Controller	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS INC, PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
James P Clements	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Thomas A Richlovsky	director	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., P.O. BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Melinda Davis Lux	officer: EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514
Mark Aaron Terry	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC., PO BOX 398, BLAIRSVILLE GA 30514