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TXO Partners LP (TXO Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is TXO Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TXO Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TXO Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TXO Partners LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

TXO Partners LP (TXO Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » TXO Partners LP (NYSE:TXO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SD WTI BRY GPRK REPX VTS EGY GFR TELL GRNT COP HKSE:00883 EOG TSX:CNQ PXD OXY MIC:NVTK HES ASX:WDS DVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
7OJ:Germany
Address
400 West 7th Street, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76102
Website
https://www.txopartners.com
TXO Partners LP is focused on the acquisition, development, optimization and exploitation of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America.
Executives
Phillip R Kevil director, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
King Luther Capital Management Corp 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bob R Simpson director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Keith A Hutton director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Adams William H Iii director, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Global Endowment Management, Lp 10 percent owner 224 W TREMONT AVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28203
Lkcm Investment Partnership, L.p. 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Lkcm Private Discipline Master Fund, Spc 10 percent owner PO BOX 309GT, UGLAND HOUSE, SOUTH CHURCH STREET, GRAND CAYMAN E9 00000
King J Luther Jr director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Brent W. Clum director, officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 W. 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Scott T. Agosta officer: See Remarks, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 W. 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Richard Jacob Settle director, other: See Remarks C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102