Tivity Health (Tivity Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Tivity Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tivity Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tivity Health (Tivity Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Tivity Health Inc (NAS:TVTY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

701 Cool Springs Boulevard, Franklin, TN, USA, 37067

Website

http://www.tivityhealth.com

Tivity Health Inc is a provider of fitness, nutrition, and social connection solutions. The company offers an integrated portfolio of solutions to help people live longer and be healthier, including its SilverSneakers senior fitness program, Prime Fitness, and WholeHealth Living.

Executives

Stephanie M. Davis	director	701 COOL SPRINGS BLVD FRANKLIN TN 37067
Greczyn Robert J Jr	director	9009 CAROTHERS PARKWAY, SUITE C-2 FRANKLIN TN 37067
Anthony Michael Sanfilippo	director	C/O PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 3980 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Joseph Raymond Bilbao	officer: Chief Legal Officer	701 COOL SPRINGS BLVD FRANKLIN TN 37067
Thomas E Lewis	officer: Chief Operating Officer	701 COOL SPRINGS BLVD FRANKLIN TN 37067
Richard M Ashworth	director, officer: President and CEO	200 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Erin L Russell	director	245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Benjamin A. Kirshner	director	600 OFFICE CENTER DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Peter A Hudson	director	701 COOL SPRINGS BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Douglas L Braunstein	10 percent owner	HUDSON EXECUTIVE CAPITAL LP, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hudson Executive Capital Lp	10 percent owner	C/O CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM & TAFT, LLP, 200 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Hec Management Gp Llc	10 percent owner	1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Paul H. Keckley	director	701 COOL SPRINGS BOULEVARD FRANKLIN TN 37067
Daniel Tully	director	10 EAST 53RD STREET, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sara Finley	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895