Mammoth Energy Services (Mammoth Energy Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Mammoth Energy Services Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mammoth Energy Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mammoth Energy Services (Mammoth Energy Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Mammoth Energy Services Inc (NAS:TUSK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14201 Caliber Drive, Suite 300, Oklahoma City, OK, USA, 73134

Website

https://www.mammothenergy.com

Mammoth Energy Services Inc is an integrated, growth-oriented energy services company engaged in providing products and services to enable the exploration and development of North American onshore unconventional oil and natural gas reserves as well as the construction and repair of the electric grid for private utilities, public investor-owned utilities, and co-operative utilities through infrastructure services businesses. Its suite of services includes well-completion services, infrastructure services, natural sand proppant services, drilling services, and other services. The majority of revenues are earned from the well-completion services and geographically from the United States followed by Canada and other countries.

Executives

Arty Straehla	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1380 ROUTE 286 EAST, SUITE 121, INDIANA PA 15701
Arthur L Smith	director	7308 SHADYVILLA LANE, HOUSTON TX 77055
Wexford Capital Lp	director, 10 percent owner	777 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, 1ST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mark E. Layton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4727 GAILLARDIA PARKWAY, SUITE 200, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73142
Gpor Distribution Trust	10 percent owner	909 FANNIN ST, SUITE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77010
Booker Corey J.	director	MAMMOTH ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 14201 CALIBER DRIVE, SUITE 300, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Paul M. Jacobi	director	C/O WEXFORD CAPITAL LP, 777 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Matthew Ross	director	4727 GAILLARDIA PARKWAY, SUITE 200, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75201
Jonathan H Yellen	director	COMMONWEALTH HALL AT OLD PARKLAND, 3899 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 410, DALLAS TX 75219
Wexford Catalyst Trading Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	411 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, SUITE 125, GREENWICH CT 06830
Wexford Spectrum Trading Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	411 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, SUITE 125, GREENWICH CT 06830
Arthur H Amron	director	C/O WEXFORD CAPITAL LP, 777 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gulfport Energy Corp	director, 10 percent owner	14313 NORTH MAY AVENUE, SUITE 100, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
Meh Sub Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WEXFORD CAPITAL LP, 411 WEST PUTNAM AVE, SUITE 125, GREENWICH CT 06830
Rusty Neal Laforge	officer: VP, Gen. Couns., Asst. Sec.	3324 QUAIL CREEK ROAD, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73120