What is 2seventy bio Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
2seventy bio Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
2seventy bio (2seventy bio) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
60 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
2seventy bio Inc is a cell and gene therapy company focused on the research, development, and commercialization of transformative treatments for cancer. The company operates in a single segment, focusing on researching, developing and commercializing potentially transformative treatments for cancer.
Executives
| Nick Leschly |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Philip D Gregory |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
POINT RICHMOND TECH CENTER II, 501 CANAL BOULEVARD SUITE A100, RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Baird William D Iii |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 60 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Yue Tang |
10 percent owner |
221 ELM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Kynam Fund Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
221 ELM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Kynam Global Healthcare Master Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
221 ELM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Kynam Capital Management Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
221 ELM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Kynam Capital Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
221 ELM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Lin Wei |
director |
C/O ERASCA, INC., 10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 140, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Nicola Heffron |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2SEVENTY BIO, INC., 60 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Marcela V. Maus |
director |
16 RICHMOND CIRCLE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Ramy Ibrahim |
director |
C/O SURFACE ONCOLOGY, 50 HAMPSHIRE STREET, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Sarah Js Glickman |
director |
60 BINNEY STREET, C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Daniel Lynch |
director |
|
| Denice Torres |
director |
3 RABBIT RUN DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938 |
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