What is Sixth Street Specialty Lending Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sixth Street Specialty Lending Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sixth Street Specialty Lending (Sixth Street Specialty Lending) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2100 McKinney Avenue, Suite 1500, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc is a specialty finance company focused on providing flexible, fully committed financing solutions to middle market companies located in the united states of america. It partners with companies across a variety of industries and excel at providing creative solutions to companies with complex business models that may have limited access to capital. The company seeks to generate income in U.S.-domiciled middle-market companies through direct originations of interest income from the investments we hold. In addition, we may generate income from dividends on equity investments, capital gains on the sale of investments and various loan origination and other fees.
Executives
| P Emery Covington |
director |
2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Hurley Doddy |
director |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Michael Graf |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Anton Brett |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Steven Pluss |
officer: Vice President |
C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Joshua Peck |
officer: Vice President |
C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Jennifer Gordon |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
C/O TPG GLOBAL, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Ian Simmonds |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Judy S Slotkin |
director |
888 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Richard A Higginbotham |
director |
FLEETBOSTON FINANCIAL CORP, 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Joshua Easterly |
director, officer: Vice President |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| John Ross |
director |
830 PARK AVENUE, APARTMENT 11B, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Kenneth Joseph Burke |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Robert J. Stanley |
officer: President |
301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Ronald Tanemura |
director |
1010 36TH AVENUE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98112 |
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