Torchlight Energy Resources (Torchlight Energy Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Torchlight Energy Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Torchlight Energy Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Torchlight Energy Resources (Torchlight Energy Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Torchlight Energy Resources Inc (NAS:TRCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5700 W. Plano Parkway, Suite 3600, Plano, TX, USA, 75093

Website

https://www.torchlightenergy.com

Torchlight Energy Resources Inc acquires, explores, exploits, and develops oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It is primarily focused on the acquisition of early-stage projects, the development and delineation of the projects, and then the monetization of those assets once these activities are completed. The firm's primary interests include the Orogrande Project in Hudspeth County, Texas and the Hazel Project in the Midland Basin.

Executives

Alexandre Zyngier	director	5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Greg Mccabe	director, 10 percent owner	500 WEST TEXAS AVE., SUITE 890, MIDLAND TX 79701
Roger N Wurtele	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5700 WEST PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
John A. Brda	director, officer: President and CEO	1425 FRONTENAY, WARSON WOODS MO 63122
Michael James Graves	director	5700 PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Robert Lance Cook	director	5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75903
Robert David Newton	director	5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Mccabe Petroleum Corp	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 11188, MIDLAND TX 79702
Ernest Scott Kimbrough	director	5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Shockey Eunis Lorance Jr	director	10827 STONE CANYON ROAD, DALLAS TX 75230
Mcandrew Willard Greer Iii	other: Former Officer and Director	5700 WEST PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Jerry D Barney	10 percent owner	841 ANDREW RUN, CANYON LAKE TX 78133
Edward J Devereaux	director	1713 VILLA COURT, CORINTH TX 76210
G Mc Exploration, Llc	10 percent owner	400 PINE STREET, SUITE 700, ABILENE TX 79601
Robert Kenneth Dulin	10 percent owner	8449 GREENWOOD DRIVE, NIWOT CO 80503