What is Tejon Ranch Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tejon Ranch Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tejon Ranch Co (Tejon Ranch Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
P.O. Box 1000, Tejon Ranch, CA, USA, 93243
Tejon Ranch Co is a diversified real estate development and agribusiness company committed to responsibly using its land and resources to meet the housing, employment, and lifestyle needs of Californians and create value for its shareholders. It has five segments namely commercial/industrial real estate development, resort/residential real estate development, mineral resources, farming, and ranch operations. The company generates revenue from Real estate—commercial/industrial segment.
Executives
| Towerview Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Brett A Brown |
officer: Executive Vice President / CFO |
C/O INLAND REAL ESTATE CORPORATION, 2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523 |
| Susan K Hori |
director |
2046 VISTA CAJON, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
| Marc William Hardy |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
28 ALDERBROOK, IRVINE CA 92604 |
| Rhea Frawn Morgan |
director |
31546 FLYING CLOUD DRIVE, LAGUNA NIGUEL CA 92677 |
| Dt Four Partners, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
655 MADISON AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Jeannie Lynn Fuller |
director |
6218 DE LA GUERRA TERRACE, BAKERSFIELD CA 93306 |
| Michael H Winer |
director |
8235 MANJARES, MONTEREY CA 93940 |
| Geoffrey L Stack |
director |
|
| Frederick C Tuomi |
director |
C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Joseph N Rentfro |
officer: Executive VP- Real Estate |
P.O. BOX 1000, TEJON RANCH CA 93243 |
| Mcmahon Hugh F. Iv |
officer: Senior Vice President - RE |
4436 LEBEC RD., P.O. BOX 1000, TEJON RANCH CA 93243 |
| Gregory S. Bielli |
director, officer: President/CEO |
P.O. BOX 1000, LEBEC CA 93243 |
| Allen E Lyda |
officer: Vice President / CFO |
|
| Steven A. Betts |
director |
3300 NORTH THIRD AVE., PHOENIX AZ 85013 |
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