What is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding (Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
26 Main Street, Suite 101, Chatham, NJ, USA, 07928
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutics and vaccines to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. its portfolio consists of the central nervous system, rare disease, immunology, and infectious disease product candidates. The CNS portfolio includes small molecules and biologics to treat pain, neurologic, psychiatric, and addiction conditions. CNS product candidate is TNX-102 SL, a proprietary sublingual tablet formulation of cyclobenzaprine (CBP) designed for bedtime administration.
Executives
| Richard Newcomb Stillwell |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP., 26 MAIN STREET, SUITE 101, CHATHAM NJ 07928 |
| Seth Lederman |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., SUITE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Carolyn E. Taylor |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP., 26 MAIN STREET, SUITE 101, CHATHAM NJ 07928 |
| Daniel Wintner Goodman |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP., 509 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| James Treco |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Margaret Smith Bell |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP., 509 MADISON AVE., SUITE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Gregory M Sullivan |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., SUITE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Richard H Bagger |
director |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP., 509 MADISON AVE. - SUITE 1608, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Adeoye Y Olukotun |
director |
3621 SOUTH STATE ST, 695 KMS PL, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| David L Grange |
director |
|
| Ernest Mario |
director |
20 FAIRMOUNT AVENUE, P.O. BOX 445, CHATHAM NJ 07928 |
| Jessica Edgar Morris |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., SUITE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Bradley Saenger |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TONIX PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDING CORP, 509 MADISON AVE., SUITE 306, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| John B Rhodes |
director |
74 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Samuel R Saks |
director |
3180 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
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