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TransMontaigne Partners LP (TransMontaigne Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is TransMontaigne Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TransMontaigne Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TransMontaigne Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TransMontaigne Partners LP (TransMontaigne Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » TransMontaigne Partners LP (NYSE:TLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TNK GLP NVGS TOO GMLP ALTM NSE:GESHIP OCSE:TRMD A BKK:PRM HMLP GLOG DSSI DKL OMP GLOP LPG INSW SHSE:603689 BKK:SGP OSL:FLNG
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.transmontaignepartners.com
TransMontaigne Partners LP is an oil pipeline and terminal company. It provides terminaling, storage, transportation and related services for customers engaged in the distribution and marketing of light refined petroleum products, heavy refined petroleum products, crude oil, chemicals, fertilizers and other liquid products. The company offers storing and distribution of products received from the pipeline, ship, barge or railcar making delivery and transfers it to terminals. It operates through four geographic segments Gulf Coast terminals, Midwest terminals, and pipeline system, Brownsville terminals, River terminals and Southeast terminals.
Executives
Barry Edward Welch director 200 CLARENDON STREET BOSTON MA 02116
Jay A Wiese director ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, MD 28-1, TULSA OK 74172
Michael A Hammell officer: Executive VP/Gen Counsel & SEC TRANSMONTAIGNE, 1670 BROADWAY, SUITE 3100, DENVER CO 80202
Steven A Blank director C/O TRANSMONTAIGNE, 1670 BROADWAY, SUITE 3100, DENVER CO 80202
Daniel R Revers director, 10 percent owner C/O ARCLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 200 CLARENDON ST., 55TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02117
Ngl Energy Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 6120 S. YALE, SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Charles L Dunlap officer: Chief Executive Officer PASADENA REFINING SYSTEM INC., 111 RED BLUFF ROAD, PASADENA TX 77506
Stanley Morgan director, 10 percent owner, other: See Note (1) 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Atanas H Atanasov director C/O NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP, 6120 S. YALE AVENUE, SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
David C Kehoe director 6120 S. YALE AVE., SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Jerry R Masters director 1670 BROADWAY, SUITE 3100, DENVER CO 80202
David A Peters director 1670 BROADWAY, SUITE 3100, DENVER CO 80202
Cushing Mlp Opportunity Fund I, Lp 10 percent owner 8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225
Duke R Ligon director 2800 WEST COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, SUITE E, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Randall J Larson officer: CEO