What is Tingo Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tingo Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tingo Group (Tingo Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
28 West Grand Avenue, Suite 3, Montvale, NJ, USA, 07645
Tingo Group Inc is a financial technology business focusing on the growth and development technology company currently selling insurance products across various cities in China, with planned expansion into additional markets. Tingo Group has developed scalable proprietary platforms for insurance products and financial services and products, the technology for which is adaptable for other applications and markets. It is a Fintech and Agri-Fintech group of companies with operations in Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Executives
| Tingo, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
11650 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE 240, DRAPER UT 84020 |
| David Trippier |
director |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 3, MONTVALE NJ 07645 |
| Amran Shamian Moran Rachel |
officer: Controller |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 3, MONTVALE NJ 07645 |
| John Mcmillan Scott |
director |
22 CLAY HAYES, CHELFORD, CHESHIRE X0 SK119ST |
| John J Brown |
director |
1450 BOOT RD BLDG 400, ROM TECH INC, WEST CHESTER PA 19380 |
| Jamal Khurshid |
director |
BEAMS END, OLD BRIGHTON ROAD, PEASE POTTAGE X0 RH11 9AJ |
| Kenneth I Denos |
director |
10757 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SUITE 125, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095 |
| Kevin Hao Chen |
officer: CFO |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 3, MONTVALE NY 07645 |
| Darren Mercer |
director |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE STE 3, MONTVALE NJ 07645 |
| Robert John Benton |
director |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 3, MONTVALE NJ 07645 |
| Jeffrey P. Bialos |
director |
C/O MICRONET ENERTEC TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 70 KINDERKAMACK ROAD, EMERSON NJ 07630 |
| David Lucatz |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President |
C/O MICRONET ENERTEC TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 70 KINDERKAMACK ROAD, EMERSON NJ 07630 |
| Simon Erroll Prior-palmer |
10 percent owner |
19 EARLS COURT GARDENS, LONDON X0 SW5 0SZ |
| Technology Plc Bnn |
10 percent owner |
FIRST FLOOR, MALLORY HOUSE, GOOSTREY WAY, KNUTSFORD X0 WA16 7GY |
| Oren Harari |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
28 WEST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 3, MONTVALE NJ 07645 |
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