Teleflex (Teleflex) Predictability Rank

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What is Teleflex Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Teleflex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Teleflex Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Teleflex (Teleflex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Teleflex Inc (NYSE:TFX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T1FX34:Brazil

Address

550 East Swedesford Road, Suite 400, Wayne, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.teleflex.com

Teleflex is a Wayne, Pennsylvania-based manufacturer of hospital supplies and medical devices primarily in the bloodstream/vascular and surgical areas. The firm reports results across seven segments: vascular access (24% of 2022 sales), interventional (16%), anesthesia (14%), surgical (14%), interventional urology (12%), original-equipment manufacturing (10%), and all other (10%). Geographic exposure for the business is primarily in the U.S., which accounts for 60% of revenue, with international markets making up the remainder.

Executives

Liam Kelly	officer: EVP & President, International	IDA BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY PARK, DUBLIN ROAD, ATHLONE L2 00000
Thomas E Powell	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	C/O TOMOTHERAPY INCORPORATED, 1240 DEMING WAY, MADISON WI 53717
Stuart A Randle	director	585 WEST 500 SOUTH, BOUNTIFUL UT 84010
Jaewon Ryu	director	950 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 700, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Neena M Patil	director	JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS, 3170 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Andrew A Krakauer	director	CANTEL MEDICAL CORP., 150 CLOVE ROAD, 9TH FLOOR, LITTLE FALLS NJ 07424
Cameron P Hicks	officer: Vice President, Global HR	550 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
Klasko Stephen K. M.d.	director	155 SOUTH LIMERICK ROAD, LIMERICK PA 19468
Jay White	officer: VP & Pres, Global Commercial	3015 CARRINGTON MILL BLVD., MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Daniel V. Logue	officer: VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	550 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
John Deren	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	550 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
James J Leyden	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	C/O INFRASOURCE SERVICES, INC, 500 WEST DUTTON MILL ROAD, ASTON PA 19014
James Winters	officer: Vice President, Mfg and Supply	550 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
Mario Wijker	officer: Vice President, QARA	550 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 400, WAYNE PA 19087
Benson Smith	director	C/O ROCHESTER MEDICAL INC, ONE ROCHESTER MEDICAL DDRIVE, STEWARTVILLE MN 55976