BlackRock TCP Capital (BlackRock TCP Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is BlackRock TCP Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BlackRock TCP Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BlackRock TCP Capital (BlackRock TCP Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » BlackRock TCP Capital Corp (NAS:TCPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8TC:Germany

Address

2951 28th Street, Suite 1000, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90405

Website

https://www.tcpcapital.com

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp is an externally-managed specialty finance company focused on middle-market lending. Its investment objective is to achieve high total returns through current income and capital appreciation, with an emphasis on principal protection. It seeks to achieve our investment objective primarily through investments in debt securities of middle-market companies. The group generates returns through a combination of the receipt of contractual interest payments on debt investments and origination and similar fees, and, to a lesser extent, equity appreciation through options, warrants, conversion rights or direct equity investments.

Executives

Karen L Leets	director	125 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Rajneesh Vig	officer: Authorized Person, other: Officer of Advisor	C/O TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA X1 90405
Karyn Leigh Williams	director	C/O TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, 2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Erik L. Cuellar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Andrea Petro	director	C/O READY CAPITAL CORPORATION, 1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 50TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10020
Philip M Tseng	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Charles Park	officer: CCO	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Howard Levkowitz	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Kathleen A Corbet	director	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Paul L Davis	officer: Chief Compliance Officer, other: Officer of Investment Adviser	TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH STREET, STE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Brian F Wruble	director	TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Michael E Leitner	officer: Authorized Person, other: Officer of Adviser	C/O TENNENBAUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 2951 28TH ST., SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Eric John Draut	director	340 EAST RANDOLPH, SUITE 3101, CHICAGO IL 60601
Mark Holdsworth	officer: Authorized Person, other: Officer of Investment Adviser	140 S. LAKE AVE., STE. 304, PASADENA CA 91101
M. Freddie Reiss	director	2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405