GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Third Coast Bancshares Inc (NAS:TCBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Third Coast Bancshares (Third Coast Bancshares) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Third Coast Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Third Coast Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Third Coast Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Third Coast Bancshares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Third Coast Bancshares (Third Coast Bancshares) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Third Coast Bancshares Inc (NAS:TCBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PCB FFBB SCZC NWFL PBFS SFST USCB NECB RBB RVRF CAR:BPV CAR:MVZ.A CAR:BNC NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 ISX:BBCA XPAR:BNP MIC:SBER
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20202 Highway 59 North, Suite 190, Humble, TX, USA, 77338
Website
https://www.tcbssb.com
Third Coast Bancshares Inc is a bank holding company. It focuses on providing commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses and professionals with operations in its markets. The bank operates eleven branches in the Greater Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin-San Antonio markets, and one branch in Detroit, Texas.
Executives
William Bobbora officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
David R Phelps director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Vicki Alexander officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Richard J Mcwhorter officer: Chief Financial Officer
Dennis Bonnen director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Audrey Duncan officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Michael Deckert officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Christopher Seay Peacock officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Tony Scavuzzo director 102 E. FRONT ST., MONROE MI 48161
Martin Basaldua director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Carolyn Bailey director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Bart Caraway director, officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Joseph Stunja director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Shelton Mcdonald director 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338
Donald C Legato officer: See Remarks 20202 HIGHWAY 59 NORTH, SUITE 190, HUMBLE TX 77338