Taitron Components (Taitron Components) Predictability Rank

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What is Taitron Components Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Taitron Components Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Taitron Components (Taitron Components) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Taitron Components Inc (NAS:TAIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

28040 West Harrison Parkway, Valencia, CA, USA, 91355

Website

https://www.taitroncomponents.com

Taitron Components Inc is a supplier of originally designed and manufactured (ODM) products that include value-added engineering and turn-key solutions. It focuses on providing original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and contracts electronic manufacturers (CEMs) with ODM products for their multi-year turn-key projects and ODM electronic components. Its product offerings range from discrete semiconductors to small electronic devices. The company also distributes brand-name electronic components with a vast inventory available on hand. Its Taiwan and China locations provide support for inventory sourcing, purchases, and coordinating the manufacture of ODM Projects and ODM Components.

Executives

Chi-lin Chung	director	28040 WEST HARRISON PARKWAY, VALENCIA CA 91355
Craig Miller	director	15165 VENTURA BLVD, STE 425, SHERMAAN OAKS CA 91403
David Vanderhorst	officer: CFO	C/O TAITRON COMPONENTS, 28040 W HARRISON PKWY, VALENCIA CA 91355
Stewart Wang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, CFO	C/O TAITRON COMPONENTS, 28040 W HARRISON PKWY, VALENCIA CA 91355
Tzu Sheng Ku	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	C/O TAITRON COMPONENTS, 28040 W HARRISON PKWY, VALENCIA CA 91355
Richard Chiang	director	28040 W HARRISON PKWY, VALENCIA CA 91355
Felix Sung	director	C/O TAITRON COMPONENTS, 28040 W HARRISON PKWY, VALENCIA CA 91355