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Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co (SZSE:300602) Predictability Rank


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What is Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co Predictability Rank?

1.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co (SZSE:300602) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co Ltd (SZSE:300602) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002139 SZSE:000413 SZSE:002992 SZSE:002036 SHSE:688629 SHSE:688686 SZSE:000727 SHSE:603678 SZSE:000970 SZSE:300657 APH TPE:2317 TEL SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TPE:2308 GLW XKRX:006400 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 8 Gaofa Industrial Park, Maotoushan, FRD Building, Beihuan Boulevard, 1st to 6th Floor, Nanshan District, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen, CHN, 518055
Website
http://www.frd.cn
Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co Ltd is a China based company engaged in manufacturing of EMI shielding materials, Thermal interface materials and other related electronic materials. The company has a business presence in China, and other countries. EMI shielding materials include metal shielding products, electrically conductive elastomer, fabric over foam and conductive, electrically conductive plastics, and microwave absorber. Thermal materials comprise graphite film, thermal interface material, and thermally conductive plastics. The other supporting materials offered by the entity are PUR hot melt adhesive, and graphics overlay and labels.
Executives
Ma Fei Director
Du Jin Song Directors, executives
Zhang Quan Hong Executives
Xie Huo Gui Supervisors
Liu Yi Executives
Wang Yan Directors, executives
Ma Jun Directors, executives
Lan Yu Hong Executives
Qiu Huan Wen Directors, executives
Shi Wei Min Executives
Lai Xiang Dong Independent director

Shenzhen FRD Science & Techonology Co (SZSE:300602) Headlines

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