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Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co (SZSE:002661) Predictability Rank


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What is Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co (SZSE:002661) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co Ltd (SZSE:002661) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:000798 SZSE:002956 SZSE:300915 SZSE:002732 SHSE:603755 SZSE:300898 SZSE:002702 SZSE:001219 SZSE:300673 SHSE:600962 XSWX:NESN KHC GIS XPAR:BN SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 TSE:2802 LSE:ABF
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 28, Zhenhua Road, Environmental Protection Technology Industrial Park, Yuhua District, Hunan Province, Changsha, CHN, 410116
Website
http://www.kemen.net.cn
Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co Ltd is a food manufacturing company in China. It is engaged in the research and development, production, and sale of middle and high-grade fine dried noodles. Its noodles are categories into six series - nutrition, power, high-gluten, gift, children, and other series. The company distributes its products under the brand name CKM.
Executives
Chen Hong Directors, executives
Chen Yan Secretary, Director
Yang Bo Executives
Zhang Bo Dong Executives
Zhang Xiao Executives
Li Rui Executives
Duan Ju Xiang Director
Zhang Jun Hui Executives
Chen Ke Zhong Director
Yang Li Juan Supervisors
Zhang Mu Lin Independent director
Li Qing Long Independent director
Chen Ke Ming Director
Chen Hui Director
Wang Yong Secretary, Director

Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co (SZSE:002661) Headlines

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