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Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co (SZSE:002611) Predictability Rank


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What is Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co (SZSE:002611) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co Ltd (SZSE:002611) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603901 SZSE:002639 SHSE:603396 SZSE:002884 SHSE:688719 SZSE:000922 SZSE:300444 SZSE:002896 SZSE:300066 SZSE:000595 GE XTER:SIE XPAR:SU ETN XKRX:373220 ITW OSTO:ATCO A EMR PH AME
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 2, Zhenqiangshi Road, Nanhai District, Guangdong Province, Foshan, CHN
Website
https://www.df-global.cn
Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co Ltd is a China-based company that engages in the process, manufacture, and sale of carton printing equipment and accessories. The main products of the company's intelligent packaging equipment business include corrugated cardboard production line, corrugated box printing complete production line, pre-press, post-press intelligent automation equipment, and automated logistics systems. Some of the company's standalone printing products equipment include TOPRA AD, TOPRA GT, APSTAR HG 2, and APSTAR HS. The company's products are exported to more than 30 countries and regions, including Europe, America, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.
Executives
Xie Wei Wei Directors, executives
Qiu Ye Zhi Directors, executives
Li Ke Tian Independent director
Yang Ya Li Directors, executives
Tang Zhuo Mian Director
Tang Zhuo Lin Director
Tang Yan Ling Supervisors
Cen Mei Ling Supervisors

Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Tech Co (SZSE:002611) Headlines

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