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Rainbow Digital Commercial Co (SZSE:002419) Predictability Rank


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What is Rainbow Digital Commercial Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rainbow Digital Commercial Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rainbow Digital Commercial Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rainbow Digital Commercial Co (SZSE:002419) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Rainbow Digital Commercial Co Ltd (SZSE:002419) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600828 SZSE:000501 SZSE:002697 SHSE:603708 SHSE:600814 SHSE:600694 SZSE:000882 SHSE:605188 SZSE:002277 SHSE:600628 TSE:8267 PHS:SM LIVEPOL1 JSE:SHP TSE:9005 BKK:CRC LSE:MKS DDS XSGO:FALABELLA XSGO:CENCOSUD
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 3019, Central Road (Shenzhen Bay Section), 9th-14th Floor, 17th-20th Floor, Tianhong Building, Nanshan District, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen, CHN, 518026
Website
http://www.rainbow.cn
Rainbow Digital Commercial Co Ltd operates a platform-based business with department stores, shopping malls and vertical business with supermarkets, convenience stores. It sells daily necessities, textiles, clothing, cosmetics, food, salt, beverages, health foods, agricultural and sideline products, household appliances and electronic products, culture, sports goods and equipment, building materials and chemical products.
Executives
Chen Zhi Xiang Supervisors
Jiang Yong Executives
Chen Yu Supervisors
Wu Jian Qiong Executives
Hou Yi Executives
Wan Ying Secretary Dong
Zhang Xu Hua Executives
Zheng Man Executives
Song Yao Ming Executives
Sun Jin Cheng Executives
Gao Shu Lin Directors, executives

Rainbow Digital Commercial Co (SZSE:002419) Headlines

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