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Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co (SZSE:002079) Predictability Rank


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What is Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co (SZSE:002079) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co Ltd (SZSE:002079) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:688380 SHSE:688403 SHSE:688270 SHSE:688332 SHSE:688262 SZSE:300708 SHSE:688691 SZSE:001270 SHSE:688206 SZSE:002057 NVDA TPE:2330 AVGO AMD QCOM TXN MU INTC ADI XKRX:000660
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 31, Tongxi Road, Tongan Development Zone, Jiangsu, Suzhou, CHN, 215002
Website
http://www.goodark.com
Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co Ltd is a China-based company engaged in the semiconductor industry. It designs, manufactures, packages and sells semiconductors. The products offered by the company include the leadless integrated circuits and discrete devices, automotive rectifier diode, power modules, rectifier diode chip, silicon rectifier diodes, switching diodes, Zener diodes, miniature bridges, military fuse, and photovoltaic bypass module. The company sells its products in China and other countries.
Executives
Wu Nian Bo Director
Xie Qian Qian Executives
Teng You Xi Directors, executives
Yang Xiao Ping Executives
Gu Mei Jun Executives
Wen Su Bin Independent director
Tang Zai Nan Directors, executives
Yang Shuo Securities Affairs Representative
Huang Hao Rong Supervisors
Lu Fei Min Supervisors
Jiang Xiao Hang Supervisors

Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co (SZSE:002079) Headlines

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