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Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co (SZSE:000530) Predictability Rank


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What is Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co (SZSE:000530) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co Ltd (SZSE:000530) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002689 SZSE:301151 SZSE:301317 SZSE:002665 SZSE:300154 SHSE:600520 SZSE:002686 SZSE:002021 SHSE:603095 SZSE:301528 XTER:SIE XPAR:SU ETN OSTO:ATCO A ITW PH EMR XKRX:373220 AME OTIS
Traded in Other Exchanges
200530:China
Address
No.106, Liaohe East Road, Dalian Economic & Technological Development Zone, Liaoning Province, Dalian, CHN, 116630
Website
http://www.bingshan.cn
Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co Ltd is an industrial machinery components manufacturer based in China. Its core product is refrigeration equipment components, which are utilized for developing cold storage devices and for central and commercial air-conditioning purposes. The company also offers products for ice-making, cold chains, cold stores, and special refrigeration projects. The firm segments are based on the geographic area: Northeast China, Central China, and East China.
Executives
Lu Jun Executives
Xu Jun Rao Director
Liu Kai Director
Ma Yun Executives
Ji Zhi Jian Director
Wang Zhi Qiang Executives
Xiao Yong Qin Director
Zhang Gui Le Director
Hu Xi Tang Executives

Bingshan Refrigeration and Heat Transfer Technologies Co (SZSE:000530) Headlines

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