Spyre Therapeutics (Spyre Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is Spyre Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spyre Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Spyre Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Spyre Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Spyre Therapeutics (Spyre Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Spyre Therapeutics Inc (NAS:SYRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

221 Crescent Street, Building 23,, Suite 105, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453

Website

https://www.spyre.com

Spyre Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company that aims to create the next-generation of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) products by combining best-in-class antibody engineering, rational therapeutic combinations, and precision medicine approaches for patient selection. IBD is a chronic condition characterized by inflammation within the gastrointestinal tract, including two main disorders which are UC and CD. A range of pharmaceutical options to address IBD exists, including anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressants, and biologics.

Executives

Scott L Burrows	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARCUTIS BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3027 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 300, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Heidy King-jones	officer: See Remarks	C/O AXCELLA HEALTH INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Fairmount Healthcare Co-invest L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Peter Evan Harwin	director, 10 percent owner	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Fairmount Funds Management Llc	director, 10 percent owner	200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Cameron Turtle	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O EIDOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2550, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Michael Thomas Henderson	director	421 KIPLING STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Fairmount Healthcare Fund L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Fairmount Healthcare Fund Ii L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Tomas Kiselak	director, 10 percent owner	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jeff Marc Goldberg	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AKCEA THERAPEUTICS, 55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, STE 100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Linda L Neuman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 805 LAS CIMAS PARKWAY, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78746
Marcio Souza	director	C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 CORPORATE COURT, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
James Paul Kastenmayer	officer: Interim CEO & General Counsel	ONE MEDIMMUNE WAY, FLOOR ONE, AREA TWO, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Hanley Jr. Michael Conick	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AEGLEA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, #250, AUSTIN TX 78746