Swiss Helvetia Fund (Swiss Helvetia Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Swiss Helvetia Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Swiss Helvetia Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Swiss Helvetia Fund (Swiss Helvetia Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc (NYSE:SWZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

C/o U.S. Bank Global Fund Services, 615 East Michigan Street, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

http://www.swzfund.com

Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc is a non-diversified, closed-end investment company. Its investment objective is to seek long-term capital appreciation through investment in equity and equity-linked securities of Swiss companies. The group invests in various sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, industrial goods and services, banks, personal and household goods, construction and materials, biotechnology, medical equipment, chemicals, technology, financial services, insurance, and retail.

Executives

Andrew Dakos	director	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Phillip Goldstein	director	60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Moritz A Sell	director	C/O USBANCORP FUND SERVICES, 777 E WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Gerald Hellerman	director	5431 NW 21ST AVE., BOCA RATON FL 33496
Stephanie Darling	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Rajeev P Das	officer: Secretary	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Thomas Antonucci	officer: Chief Financial Officer	250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Richard Dayan	director	C/O IMPERIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 701 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., SUITE 301, BOCA RATON FL 33487
David Bock	director	C/O I-TRAX INC, ONE LOGAN SQUARE STE 2615, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Jean Hoysradt	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE., 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Samuel B Witt	director	STATFESIDE ASSOCIATES INC, 2300 CLARENDON BLVD STE 407, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Fred J Ricciardi	director	60 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Reid B Adams	officer: Chf. Legal Officer & Secretary	SCHRODER INVEST. MGMT. NORTH AMERICA INC, 875 THIRD AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jean-marc Boillat	director	LES GADRAS, VILLENEUVE DE DURAS I0 47120
Calhoun Joseph S Iii	director	C/O SCHRODERS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022