NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund (NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund (NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » NXG Cushing Midstream Energy Fund (NYSE:SRV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

600 N. Pearl Street, Suite 1205, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.cushingcef.com

The Cushing MLP & Infrastructure Total Return Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company with an investment objective of seeking a high after-tax total return from a combination of capital appreciation and current income. The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in a portfolio of infrastructure master limited partnerships (MLPs) and MLP-related investments.

Executives

Todd Sunderland	other: Adviser COO	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
Jeffrey A Engelsman	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	865 SOUTH FIGUEROA STREET, SUITE 1800, LOS ANGELES CA 90017
John Alban	officer: CFO/Treasurer and Interim CCO	THE CUSHING MLP TOTAL RETURN FUND, 3300 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 650, DALLAS TX 75219
Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Mark Rhodes	officer: President	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
John M. Musgrave	other: Portfolio Manager	8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225
Blake Nelson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225
Brian R Bruce	director	5945 GLENDOWER LANE, PLANO TX 75093
Andrea Mullins	director	3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Mathew Calabro	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225
Saket Kumar	other: Adviser Managing Partner	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
Brenda A Cline	other: Trustee	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Jerry V Swank	officer: President and CEO	3300 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 650, DALLAS TX 75219
Daniel L Spears	other: Partner	C/O EMERALD OIL, INC., 200 COLUMBINE, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80206