Sierra Oncology (Sierra Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Sierra Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sierra Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sierra Oncology (Sierra Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Sierra Oncology Inc (NAS:SRRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1820 Gateway Drive, Suite 110, San Mateo, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.sierraoncology.com

Sierra Oncology Inc is a clinical-stage drug development company. It focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of DNA Damage Response (DDR) therapeutics for the treatment of patients with cancer in the United States and internationally. The company's lead drug candidate is SRA737, an orally bioavailable small molecule inhibitor of Checkpoint kinase 1, which is in Phase 1 clinical trial to treat patients with advanced cancer. In addition, it also engaged in developing SRA141, an orally bioavailable small molecule inhibitor of the cell division cycle 7 kinase that is in the preclinical development stage.

Executives

Vivo Opportunity Fund Holdings, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
William D. Turner	officer: Chief Reg & Tech Ops Officer	C/O SIERRA ONCOLOGY, INC. 1820 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 110 SAN MATEO CA 94404
Mary Christina Thomson	officer: General Counsel	C/O SIERRA ONCOLOGY, INC. 1820 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 110 SAN MATEO CA 94404
Joshua Richardson	director, 10 percent owner	C/O LONGITUDE CAPITAL 2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Capital Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	800 EL CAMINO, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Prime Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Prime Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gaurav Aggarwal	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PANORAMA CAPITAL, 2440 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 302, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Llp Abingworth	10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Vivo Opportunity Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Andrew Sinclair	director	C/O SOLENO THERAPEUTICS INC., 1235 RADIO ROAD, SUITE 110, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Craig A Collard	director	C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC., 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250, CARY NC 27518
Georgia Erbez	director	6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Christy J. Oliger	director	85 WELLS AVENUE, SUITE 210, NEWTON MA 02459