SPX Technologies (SPX Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is SPX Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SPX Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SPX Technologies (SPX Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » SPX Technologies Inc (NYSE:SPXC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPW0:Germany

Address

6325 Ardrey Kell Road, Suite 400, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28277

Website

https://www.spx.com

SPX Technologies Inc supplies engineered heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, or HVAC, products, as well as detection and measurement technologies and power equipment. The company operates through three segments. The HVAC segment designs, manufactures, installs, and services cooling products, as well as heating and ventilation products. The detection and measurement technologies segment designs, manufactures, and installs underground pipe and cable locators and inspection equipment, bus-fare collection systems, and others. The Engineered Solutions segment engineers, designs, manufactures, installs and services transformers for the power transmission and distribution market. The company generates almost all of its revenue from American domestic market.

Executives

Natausha Heleena White	officer: VP and CHRO	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
J Randall Data	officer: Pres. - S. Africa & Global Op.	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Wayne M. Mclaren	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 6325 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
John Webster Nurkin	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Mark A Carano	officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, #700, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Sean Mcclenaghan	officer: PRESIDENT, GLOBAL COOLING	SPX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 6325 ARDREY KELL ROAD, SUITE 400, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Swann John William Iii	officer: Pres., Heating and Location &	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Michael Andrew Reilly	officer: Corp. Controller and CAO	2007 CHANNELSTONE WAY, MATTHEWS NC 28104
Lowe Eugene Joseph Iii	director, officer: President and CEO	13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
James E Harris	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O RXO, INC., 11215 N. COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Ankush Kumar	officer: President, SPX Global Cooling	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 6325 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Brian G. Mason	officer: Pres. - SPX Transformer Sol.	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320-A BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Angel S Willis	director	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Scott William Sproule	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Meenal Sethna	director	8755 WEST HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60631