Sprout Social (Sprout Social) Predictability Rank

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What is Sprout Social Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sprout Social Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sprout Social (Sprout Social) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Sprout Social Inc (NAS:SPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPT:Mexico

Address

131 South Dearborn Street, Suite 700, Chicago, IL, USA, 60603

Website

https://www.sproutsocial.com

Sprout Social Inc develops a cloud software that brings together social messaging, data and workflows in a unified system of record, intelligence, and action. The firm generates majority revenue from software subscriptions.

Executives

Justyn Russell Howard	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O SPROUT SOCIAL, INC., 131 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Ryan Paul Barretto	officer: President	C/O SPROUT SOCIAL, INC., 131 SOUTH DEARBORN AVENUE, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Rankin Aaron Edward Frederick	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SPROUT SOCIAL, INC., 131 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Preto Joseph Del	officer: CFO and Treasurer	600 WEST CHICAGO AVENUE, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60610
Karen Walker	director	170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Raina Moskowitz	director	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY,INC., BROOKLYN NY 11201
William Thomas Stanley	director	131 S DEARBORN ST, STE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Steven A Collins	director	20 N. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Jamie Cannon Gilpin	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O SPROUT SOCIAL, INC., 131 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Jason Kreuziger	director	C/O SPROUT SOCIAL, INC., 131 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, SUITE 700, CHICAGO IL 60603
Gs Fund Holdings, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
New Enterprise Associates 13 Lp	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Mbd Advisors, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Bridge Street Opportunity Advisors, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282