Staples (Staples) Predictability Rank

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What is Staples Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Staples Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Staples (Staples) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Staples Inc (NAS:SPLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.staples.com

Staples is an American retailer with online and delivery capabilities. Staples offers products in categories: technology, facilities and breakroom, furniture, safety, medical, copy and print, and Staples EasyTech services. Staples operates throughout North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. The company divides its business into three segments: North American stores and online, North American commercial, and international operations. The product offering includes Staples, Quill, and other proprietary branded products. Staples' product price points are generally low.

Executives

Shira Goodman	director, officer: CEO	C/O CARMAX, 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
John F Lundgren	director	1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Deborah A Henretta	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Robert E Sulentic	director	C/O CBRE, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1250, DALLAS TX 75201
Kunal Kamlani	director	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Christine T Komola	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 STAPLES DRIVE, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Drew G Faust	director	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Curtis F Feeny	director	C/O CBRE, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1250, DALLAS TX 75201
Joseph Doody	officer: Vice Chairman	CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701
Carol Meyrowitz	director	TJX COMPANIES INC, 770 COCHITUATE RD, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701
Ronald Sargent	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Demos Parneros	officer: President, NA Stores & Online	483 BAY ST, 7TH FL NORTH TOWER, TORONTOON A1 999999999
Rowland Moriarty	director	200 CLARENDON ST T33, BOSTON MA 02116
Raul Vazquez	director	500 STAPLES DR., FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Basil Anderson	director