Spectaire Holdings (Spectaire Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Spectaire Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spectaire Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spectaire Holdings (Spectaire Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Spectaire Holdings Inc (NAS:SPEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

155 Arlington Street, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.spectaire.com

Spectaire Holdings Inc is an industrial technology company that allows its customers to measure, manage, and reduce carbon dioxide equivalent and other greenhouse gas emissions. Spectaire's core product offering, AireCore is a fully integrated hardware, software, and data platform.

Executives

Brian Semkiw	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Joerg Mosolf	director	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Perception Capital Partners Llc	10 percent owner	251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Rui Mendes	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Gianfranco Baldesarra	director	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Christopher Grossman	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Leonardo Fernandes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Brian Hemond	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SPECTAIRE INC., 155 ARLINGTON STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Northern Pacific Group, L.p.	10 percent owner	251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Owl Creek Asset Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jeffrey A Altman	10 percent owner	640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6
Tao Tan	director	7809 WOODMONT AVENUE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Karrie Willis	director	C/O PERCEPTION CAPITAL CORP. II, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Aqr Arbitrage Llc	10 percent owner	ONE GREENWICH PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830

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