What is Sonida Senior Living Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sonida Senior Living Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sonida Senior Living (Sonida Senior Living) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
16301 Quorum Drive, Suite 160A, Addison, TX, USA, 75001
Sonida Senior Living Inc is an owner-operator of senior housing communities in the United States in terms of resident capacity. The company provides senior living services to the elderly, including independent living, assisted living, Respite Care and Temporary Care Programs, Home Care Services, and memory care services. Its objective is to provide value to residents by providing quality senior housing services at reasonable prices. The basic service of the company is comprised of meals, housekeeping, laundry, 24-hour staffing, transportation, social and recreational activities, and healthcare monitoring.
Executives
| Ortelius Advisors, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
450 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2700, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Timothy Cober |
officer: See Remarks |
16301 QUORUM DRIVE, SUITE 160A, ADDISON TX 75001 |
| Sam Levinson |
10 percent owner |
9190 PRIORITY WAY WEST DRIVE, SUITE 300, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240 |
| Reanae Clark |
officer: See remarks |
14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 810, DALLAS TX 75254 |
| Michael Karicher |
officer: See Remarks |
16301 QUORUM DRIVE, SUITE 160A, ADDISON TX 75001 |
| Noah Beren |
director |
C/O GF INVESTMENTS, 810 7TH AVE., 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Shmuel Lieberman |
director |
C/O GF INVESTMENTS, 810 7TH AVE 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Hudson Investors, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
450 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2700, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Ortelius Capital Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
450 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 2700, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Kevin Detz |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
16301 QUORUM DRIVE, SUITE 160A, ADDISON TX 75001 |
| Howard Steven Garfield |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
15601 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ADDISON TX 75001 |
| Benjamin P Harris |
director |
WP CAREY & CO LLC, 50 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
| Conversant Gp Holdings Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
90 PARK AVENUE 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Conversant Dallas Parkway (a) Lp |
director, 10 percent owner |
CONVERSANT DALLAS PARKWAY (A) LP, 25 DEFOREST AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Conversant Dallas Parkway (b) Lp |
director, 10 percent owner |
CONVERSANT DALLAS PARKWAY (B) LP, 25 DEFOREST AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
SNDA has been successfully added to your