What is NuScale Power Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
NuScale Power Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
NuScale Power (NuScale Power) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6650 SW Redwood Lane, Suite 210, Portland, OR, USA, 97224
NuScale Power Corp is engaged in the development of a new modular light water reactor nuclear power plant to supply energy for electrical generation, district heating, desalination, hydrogen production, and other process heat applications.
Executives
| Thomas P Mundy |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
6550 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Chris Colbert |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Shinji Fujino |
director |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Alan L Boeckmann |
director |
C/O FLUOR CORP, ONE ENTERPRISE DR, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656 |
| Robert Ramsey Hamady |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Carl M. Fisher |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Rudy Murgo |
officer: Treasurer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Karin Feldman |
officer: Interim Chief Operating Office |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| John Lawrence Hopkins |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Julie Adelman |
officer: Controller |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Clayton Scott |
officer: EVP, Business Development |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Robert K Temple |
officer: General Counsel |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Reyes Jose N Jr |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Dale Atkinson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224 |
| Ibk Securities Co., Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
11 GUKJEGEUMYUNG-RO 6-GIL, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, SEOUL M5 07330 |
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