Semler Scientific (Semler Scientific) Predictability Rank

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What is Semler Scientific Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Semler Scientific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Semler Scientific (Semler Scientific) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Semler Scientific Inc (NAS:SMLR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6FA:Germany

Address

2340-2348 Walsh Avenue, Suite 2344, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95051

Website

http://www.semlerscientific.com

Semler Scientific Inc is a US-based company that is engaged in providing technology solutions to improve the clinical effectiveness and efficiency of healthcare providers. It focuses on developing, manufacturing, and marketing proprietary products and services that assist customers, including insurance plans, physicians, and risk assessment groups, in evaluating and treating chronic diseases. The company markets its vascular-testing product under the QuantaFlo brand, which is a four-minute in-office blood flow test.

Executives

Eric Semler	director	4625 FIELDSTON ROAD, BRONX NY 10471
Renae Cormier	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 2340-2348 WALSH AVE, SUITE 2344, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Douglas Murphy-chutorian	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, SUITE 110, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Wayne T Pan	director	2330 NW EVERETT STREET, PORTLAND OR 97210
William H.c. Chang & Diana Shon Chang Ttee Chang Family Trust U/a Dtd 10/23/2006	10 percent owner	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN CT., SAN JOSE CA 95112
Chang 2020 Delaware Lp	10 percent owner	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 2340-2348 WALSH AVENUE, SUITE 2344, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Arthur N Leibowitz	director	C/O I-TRAX INC, ONE LOGAN SQUARE STE 2615, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Chang 2020 Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 2340-2348 WALSH AVENUE, STE. 2344, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Cindy Moon	director	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Daniel S Messina	director	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, STE. 110, SAN JOSE Z4 95112
Daniel E Conger	officer: Vice President, Finance	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, SUITE 110, SAN JOSE CA 95112
William H Chang	10 percent owner	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, SUITE 110, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Diana Shon Chang	10 percent owner	1301 SHOREWAY RD., SUITE 150, BELMONT CA 94002
Andrew B. Weinstein	officer: Senior VP, Finance and Acct.	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 911 BERN COURT, SUITE 110, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Herbert J Semler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SEMLER SCIENTIFIC, INC., 2330 NW EVERETT ST., PORTLAND OR 97210