SELLAS Life Sciences Group (SELLAS Life Sciences Group) Predictability Rank

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What is SELLAS Life Sciences Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SELLAS Life Sciences Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SELLAS Life Sciences Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SELLAS Life Sciences Group (SELLAS Life Sciences Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc (NAS:SLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RXK3:Germany

Address

7 Times Square, Suite 2503, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.sellaslifesciences.com

SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel therapeutics for a broad range of cancer indications. The company's product candidates currently include galinpepimut-S, or GPS, a peptide immunotherapy directed against the Wilms tumor 1, or WT1, antigen, and GFH009, a selective small molecule cyclin-dependent kinase 9, or CDK9, inhibitor.

Executives

Angelos M. Stergiou	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SELLAS LIFE SCIENCES GROUP, INC., 2000 CROW CANYON PLACE, SUITE 380, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Barbara A Wood	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel, Corp. Sec.	58 S SERVICE RD, MELVILLE NY 11747
John Thomas Burns	officer: VP, Finance & Corp Controller	16760 SW UPPER BOONES FERRY RD, SUITE 101, PORTLAND X1 97224
Katherine Bach Kalin	director	3201 CARNEGIE AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Robert Francomano	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O STEMLINE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nicholas J. Sarlis	officer: Chief Medical Officer and SVP	C/O SELLAS LIFE SCIENCES GROUP, INC., 2000 CROW CANYON PLACE, STE. 380, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Stephen F Ghiglieri	director	C/O NEUROGESX INC., 981 INDUSTRIAL ROAD SUITE F, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Jane Wasman	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
David A Scheinberg	director	325 CENTRAL PARK W, APT 38, NEW YORK NY 10025
Van Nostrand Robert L	director	C/O ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 300 GEORGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
John Varian	director	ARYX THERAPEUTICS,INC., 6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Eqc Private Markets Sac Fund Ltd-eqc Biotech Sely Ii Fund`	10 percent owner	C/O EQUILIBRIA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD., ONE BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Eqc Private Markets Sac Fund Ltd-eqc Biotech Sely I Fund	10 percent owner	C/O EQUILIBRIA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD., ONE BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Equilibria Capital Management Ltd	10 percent owner	O'HARA HOUSE, ONE BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Eqc Private Markets Ii Sac Fund Ltd-eqc Biotech Sely Iii Fund	10 percent owner	C/O EQUILIBRIA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD., ONE BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM08