Soluna Holdings (Soluna Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Soluna Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Soluna Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Soluna Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Soluna Holdings (Soluna Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Soluna Holdings Inc (NAS:SLNH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

325 Washington Avenue Extension, Albany, NY, USA, 12205

Website

https://www.solunacomputing.com

Soluna Holdings Inc, is a U.S based company that conducts operations through its subsidiary. The group is engaged in the mining of cryptocurrency through data centers that can be powered by renewable energy sources. The data centers buy every excess megawatt to use for batch-oriented, computing-intensive processes such as cryptocurrency mining or machine learning which is a low-risk and low-friction solution to use as a smartphone.

Executives

Jessica L. Thomas	officer: CFO	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
John Belizaire	director, officer: CEO & Pres. of EcoChain Inc.	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Patman Philip F Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9800 RICHMOND AVE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042
William Hazelip	director	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY, INC., 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
John Bottomley	director	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Mary Jennifer Oreilly	officer: Chief People Officer	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
William P Phelan	director	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY INC, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Michael Toporek	director, other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY, INCORPORATED, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Matthew E. Lipman	director, other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY, INCORPORATED, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
David C Michaels	director	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Alykhan Madhavji	director	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Moshe Binyamin	officer: President-MTI Instruments, Inc	325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Frederick W. Jones	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY INC, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Thomas J Marusak	director	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY INC, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Edward R Hirshfield	director, 10 percent owner	122 E.42ND STREET SUITE 4305, NEW YORK NY 10168