Silgan Holdings (Silgan Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Silgan Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Silgan Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Silgan Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Silgan Holdings (Silgan Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Silgan Holdings Inc (NYSE:SLGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SL3:Germany

Address

4 Landmark Square, Suite 400, Stamford, CT, USA, 06901

Website

https://www.silganholdings.com

Silgan Holdings manufactures about half of the metal food containers in North America. Its major customers include Campbell Soup, Nestle, and Del Monte. Silgan's other business segments include plastic dispensers and containers for personal and healthcare products and a closures business that manufactures metal and plastic lids and caps.

Executives

Anthony J Allott	officer: President and COO	4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Thomas James Snyder	officer: President - Silgan Containers	C/O SILGAN CONTAINERS LLC, 21600 OXNARD STREET, SUITE 1600, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Stacey J. Mcgrath	officer: Vice President, Tax	C/O SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Joseph M Jordan	director	C/O SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Robert B Lewis	officer: EVP and CFO	4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Shawn C Fabry	officer: SVP, Corporate Development	C/O SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Kimberly Irene Ulmer	officer: Vice President & Controller	4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Niharika Ramdev	director	C/O XL HYBRIDS, INC., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Daniel Patrick Murphy	officer: Vice President & Controller	C/O SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
B. Frederick Prinzen	officer: Vice President, Corp. Dev.	SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE, STAMFORD CT 06901
Jay A Martin	officer: Vice President	P O BOX 5311, NEW CASTLE PA 16105
D Greg Horrigan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and Co-CEO	4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
William T Donovan	director	C/O SILGAN HOLDINGS INC., 4 LANDMARK SQUARE SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901
Kimberly A Fields	director	C/O ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 1000 SIX PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15217
Anthony P Andreacchi	officer: Vice President, Tax	4 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 400, STAMFORD CT 06901