Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc (NAS:SKWD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Gessner Road, Suite 600, Houston, TX, USA, 77024-4284

Website

https://www.skywardinsurance.com

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc is a specialty insurance company that delivers commercial property and casualty products and solutions on a non-admitted and admitted basis. The firm has one reportable segment through which it offers a broad array of insurance coverages to a number of market niches. It operates multiple lines of business, including general liability, excess liability, professional liability, commercial auto, group accident, health, property, surety, and workers' compensation.

Executives

Westaim Corp	10 percent owner	212 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 201, TORONTO A6 M5H 1K5
Gena L Ashe	director	C/O GXO LOGISTICS, INC., TWO AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Anthony J Kuczinski	director	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
James Charles Hays	director	100 S. POINTE DRIVE, UNIT 2605, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Sean W Duffy	officer: EVP & CHIEF CLAIMS OFFICER	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Westaim Hiig Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	212 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 201, TORONTO A6 M5H 1K5
Dan Pk Bodnar	officer: CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Leslie Shaunty	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Thomas N Schmitt	officer: CHIEF PEOPLE & ADMIN. OFFICER	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Sandip A Kapadia	officer: EVP, CHIEF ACTUARY	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Katharine Terry	director	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Burkhart John A Iii	officer: PRESIDENT - SPECIALTY LINES	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Mark W Haushill	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O SKYWARD SPECIALTY INSURANCE GROUP, 800 GESSNER ROAD, STE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Kirby Hill	officer: PRESIDENT - INDUSTRY SOLUTIONS	800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Robert T. Kittel	director	70 YORK STREET, SUITE 1700, TORONTO A6 M5J 1S9