SINTX Technologies (SINTX Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is SINTX Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SINTX Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SINTX Technologies (SINTX Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » SINTX Technologies Inc (NAS:SINT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

111A:Germany 111A:Germany

Address

1885 West 2100 South, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84119

Website

https://www.sintx.com

SINTX Technologies Inc is a commercial biomaterial company engaged in using its silicon nitride technology platform to develop, manufacture, and sell a range of medical devices. The company derives product revenue primarily from the manufacture and sale of spinal fusion products used in the treatment of spine disorders. It produces silicon nitride for use in commercial products and product candidates in the forms of Solid Silicon Nitride, Porous Silicon Nitride, and Silicon Nitride Powder, among others. It is also engaged in developing wear-and corrosion-resistant implant components for hip and knee arthroplasty.

Executives

David W. Truetzel	director	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 2100 STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
David Francis O'brien	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1885 WEST 2100 SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Ty Lombardi	officer: VP Finance	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 W 2100 SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Eric A Stookey	director	5677 AIRLINE ROAD, ARLINGTON TN 38002
Gordon Esplin	officer: Vice President, Finance	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 2100 SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Kevin Ontiveros	officer: See Remarks	C/O IMARX THERAPEUTICS INC, 1635 EAST 18TH STREET, TUCSON AZ 85719
Arthur Karl Kipke	10 percent owner	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 2100 STREET SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Jay M Moyes	director, officer: Chief Fnancial Officer
Vytas Rupinskas	officer: SVP, Marketing	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 1200 STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Eric K. Olson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 2100 STREET SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
James P. Abraham	officer: SVP, Global Sales	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 1200 STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Christopher Whitfield	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 1200 STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Max Link	director	509 MADISON AVE 14TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kevin L Davis	officer: Chief Operating Officer	9149 SOUTH MONROE PLAZA WAY, SUITE B, SANDY UT 84070
Jeffrey S. White	director	C/O AMEDICA CORPORATION, 1885 WEST 2100 STREET SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119