Silk Road Medical (Silk Road Medical) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Silk Road Medical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Silk Road Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Silk Road Medical Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Silk Road Medical's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Silk Road Medical (Silk Road Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Silk Road Medical Inc (NAS:SILK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2OW:Germany

Address

1213 Innsbruck Drive, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089

Website

https://www.silkroadmed.com

Silk Road Medical Inc is a medical device company focused on reducing the risk of stroke and its devastating impact. The company has a new approach for the treatment of carotid artery disease called transcarotid artery revascularization, or TCAR, which it seeks to establish as the standard of care. TCAR relies on two novel concepts - minimally-invasive direct carotid access in the neck and high-rate blood flow reversal during the procedure to protect the brain - and combines novel endovascular techniques with fundamental surgical principles. TCAR using its portfolio of products has been clinically demonstrated to reduce the upfront morbidity and mortality risks commonly associated with carotid endarterectomy while maintaining a reduction in long-term stroke risk.

Executives

Chas Mckhann	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1555 ADAMS DRIVE, C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., MENLO PARK CA 94025
Marie L. Jones	officer: CAO and VP, Finance	1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Lucas W. Buchanan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kevin M Klemz	officer: EVP/Chief Legal Officer/Sec.	9600 54TH AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 100, PLYMOUTH MN 55442
Andrew S. Davis	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Erica J. Rogers	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Elizabeth H Weatherman	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard Ruedy	officer: EVP Clin & Reg. Affairs and QA	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Tony M. Chou	director	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Tanisha Carino	director	C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 121 SEAPORT BOULEVARD, BOSTON MA 02210
Kevin J. Ballinger	director	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Rick D Anderson	director	3600 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE B180, AUSTIN TX 78746
Donald Zurbay	director	C/O ST. JUDE MEDICAL, INC., ONE ST JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE, ST. PAUL MN 55117
Warburg Pincus Partners Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus & Co.	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY NY 100173147