Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co (SHSE:603111) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co (SHSE:603111) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co Ltd (SHSE:603111) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19, Hengda Road, Economic and Technological Development Zone, Nanjing, CHN, 210038

Website

http://www.kn-nanjing.com

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co Ltd IS engaged in the research and development, manufacturing and maintenance of railway vehicle door system. It has cooperated with major car builders such as Bombardier, Alstom, and Siemens to sell products all over the world, including France, Canada, Turkey, Singapore, Argentina, America, Saudi Arabia and Brazil. It also provides other a full suite of related products such as interior fittings, power connectors, platform screen doors, new energy products for automobile industry and precision machining equipment.

Executives

Liao Liang Mao	Director
Li Hong	senior management
Xu Qing	senior management
Chen Lei	senior management
Wang Ya Dong	senior management
Zhang Jin Xiong	Supervisors
Xu Guan Nan	senior management
Tang Wei Hua	senior management
Liu Wen Ping	Director
Gu Mei Hua	senior management
Gao Wen Ming	Director
Zhu Wei Dong	senior management
Shi Xiang	senior management
Chen Ying Qi	Director

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co (SHSE:603111) Headlines

No Headlines