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Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co (SHSE:603011) Predictability Rank


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What is Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co (SHSE:603011) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co Ltd (SHSE:603011) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:301320 SHSE:603015 SHSE:688633 SHSE:603088 SZSE:000880 SZSE:002877 SZSE:301137 SZSE:002196 SZSE:300105 SZSE:300553 GE XTER:SIE XPAR:SU ETN XKRX:373220 ITW OSTO:ATCO A EMR PH AME
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Hefei Economic and Technological Development Zone, Ziyun Road 123, Hefei, CHN
Website
http://www.hfpress.com
Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing of hydraulic press, mechanical press and other intelligent forming equipment and industrial automation equipment. The company's products and services offerings include Precision drop forging hydraulic press, Pipe straightening machine, Elbow forging hydraulic press, Door plank automatic production line, Internal high pressure forming equipment and others. It provides its solutions to Metal forming field, a Non-metal material forming, Vessal field, Aerospace field, Automobile manufacturing field, Light industry and home, Petrochemical pipe fittings field, Rail transportation field, and others.
Executives
Zhang Lan Jun senior management
Wang Yu Shan senior management
Zhang An Ping Director
Li Gui Shan senior management
Han Xiao Feng Director
Wang Xiao Feng Director
Sun Ge senior management
Wang Lei Director
Li Hui senior management
Shi Jian Wei senior management
Yan Jian Wen Director

Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co (SHSE:603011) Headlines

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