Star Group LP (Star Group LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Star Group LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Star Group LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Star Group LP (Star Group LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Star Group LP (NYSE:SGU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 West Broad Street, Suite 310, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

http://www.stargrouplp.com

Star Group LP is a company engaged in providing home heating products and services to residential and commercial customers. It offers heating and air conditioning equipment, as well as home security and plumbing services. The company also sells diesel fuel, gasoline, and home heating oil. Geographically, the company operates in U.S.

Executives

Bandera Partners Llc	10 percent owner	50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Jeffrey M Woosnam	director, officer: CEO and President	9 W. BROAD ST., STE. 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Richard Ambury	officer: CFO	9 WEST BROAD STREET, SUITE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Daniel P. Donovan	director	C/O STAR GAS PARTNERS, L.P., 9 WEST BROAD STREET, SUITE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Vermylen Paul A Jr	director	C/O STAR GAS PARTNERS, L.P., 9 WEST BROAD STREET, SUITE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Joseph R Mcdonald	officer: Chief Customer Officer	9 W. BROAD ST., STE. 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jeffrey S Hammond	officer: Chief Operating Officer	9 W BROAD ST STE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Henry D Babcock	director	9 WEST BROAD STREET, SUITE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
Steven Jay Goldman	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O STAR GAS PARTNERS, L.P., 9 WEST BROAD STREET, SUITE 310, STAMFORD CT 06902
David Michael Bauer	director	833 E. MICHIGAN ST, SUITE 1500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Yorktown Vi Associates Llc	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kestrel Energy Partners Llc	10 percent owner	2 COUNT RUMFORD LANE, HUNTINGTON NY 11743
Sheldon B Lubar	director	C/O C2 INC, 700 NORTH WATER ST SUITE 1200, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Yorktown Energy Partners Vi Lp	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bryan H Lawrence	director	C/O CROSSTEX ENERGY HOLDINGS INC, 2501 CEDAR SPRINGS STE 600, DALLAS TX 75201