Singularity Future Technology (Singularity Future Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Singularity Future Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Singularity Future Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Singularity Future Technology (Singularity Future Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Singularity Future Technology Ltd (NAS:SGLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

98 Cutter Mill Road, Suite 311, Great Neck, NY, USA, 11021

Website

https://www.singularity.us

Singularity Future Technology Ltd is an investment holding company. The company's operating segment includes Freight Logistics Services and Sale of Crypto-mining Machines. It generates maximum revenue from the Freight Logistics Services segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from China.

Executives

Zhongliang Xie	director	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Ying Cao	officer: CFO	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11021
Ling Jiang	director	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11201
Haotian Song	director, officer: Voce President	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11201
Dianjiang Wang	officer: CFO	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11201
Ziyuan Liu	director, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD., 98 CUTTER MILL ROAD, SUITE 322, GREAT NECK NY 11201
Yang Jie	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	108 WOOLEYS LN, GREAT NECK NJ 11023
Jing Shan	officer: Chief Operating Officer	9 AVE AT PORT IMPERIAL, UNITE 622, WEST NEW YORK NJ 07093
Shi Qiu	officer: Chief Technology Officer	67B 157 WEST 57 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Heng Wang	director	16-017, 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Lei Nie	officer: Vice President	49 ELMTREE LANE, JERICHO NY 11753
Xiaohuan Huang	director	GRAND TWO 131-03 40TH RD, FLUSHING NY 11354
Junfeng Xu	director	RM802, JUYUANBEILI, DAHONGMEN RD., FENGTAI DIST., BEIJING F4 100076
Jianming Li	director	RM102 NO.77 BAO GANG SI CUN, YOUYI RD, BAOSHAN DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 201999
Jing Wang	director	36-09 MAIN STREET, SUITE 9C-2, FLUSHING NY 11354