Saga Communications (Saga Communications) Predictability Rank

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What is Saga Communications Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Saga Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Saga Communications Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Saga Communications (Saga Communications) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Saga Communications Inc (NAS:SGA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SGHB:Germany

Address

73 Kercheval Avenue, Grosse Pointe Farms, MI, USA, 48236

Website

https://sagacom.com

Saga Communications Inc is a broadcast company engaged in acquiring, developing, and operating broadcast properties. The company's objective is to operate top-billing radio stations in mid-sized markets and It derives a majority of its revenue from the sale of advertising for broadcast on its stations.

Executives

Michael W Schechter	director	C/O TOWERVIEW LLC, 460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wayne Leland	officer: SVP of Operations	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Edward K. Christian Trust	10 percent owner	500 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 4000, DETROIT MI 48226
Christopher Forgy	officer: SVP - OPERATIONS	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Michael J. Bergner	director	C/O SAGA COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Towerview Llc	10 percent owner	460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Warren S Lada	officer: Senior VP - Operations	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Gregory Dean Pearce	director	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Catherine A Bobinski	officer: VP, Contr & Chf Acctg Officer	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Marcia Lobaito	officer: Senior VP and Secretary	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Samuel D Bush	officer: Senior VP and CFO	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
David B Stephens	director	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Timothy J. Clarke	director	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Gary G Stevens	director	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236
Coppedge Roy F Iii	director	73 KERCHEVAL AVENUE, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236