Security Federal (Security Federal) Predictability Rank

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What is Security Federal Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Security Federal Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Security Federal (Security Federal) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Security Federal Corp (OTCPK:SFDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

P.O. Box 810, Aiken, SC, USA, 29802

Website

https://www.securityfederalbank.com

Security Federal Corp and its subsidiaries are involved in the business of providing commercial and personal banking services as well as auto, business, home, and health insurance. The primary business of the company is to accept deposits from the general public and originate commercial real estate loans, commercial business loans, consumer loans as well as mortgage loans to buy or refinance one-to-four family residential real estate. It also originates construction loans and loans for the acquisition, development, and construction of residential subdivisions and commercial projects. The bank also operates Security federal trust and investments that offer trust, financial planning, and financial management services.

Executives

J Chris Verens	director, officer: President	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Nathan Crowe	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	238 RICHLAND AVENUE NORTHWEST, AIKEN SC 29801
Darrell R Rains	officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 15367, AUGUSTA GA 30909
Philip R. Wahl	director	238 RICHLAND AVENUE NW, AIKEN SC 29801
Toole Frampton W. Iii	director	238 RICHLAND AVENUE NW, AIKEN SC 29801
Robert E Alexander	director	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Richard T Harmon	director, officer: Exec. VP and CLO of the Bank	238 RICHLAND AVENUE WEST, AIKEN SC 29801
Toole Gasper L Iii	director, officer: VP	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Jessica T Cummins	officer: Chief Financial Officer	238 RICHLAND AVENUE WEST, AIKEN SC 29801
Thomas Lucius Moore	director	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Thomas Francis M Jr	officer: Senior VP	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
William Clyburn	director	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Roy G Lindburg	officer: Treasurer/CFO	P O BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
Frank M Thomas	director	PO BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802
William Barry Adams	director, officer: Exec. VP-Security Federal Bank	P.O. BOX 810, AIKEN SC 29802