SES AI (SES AI) Predictability Rank

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What is SES AI Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SES AI Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SES AI (SES AI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » SES AI Corp (NYSE:SES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

35 Cabot Road, Woburn, MA, USA, 01801

Website

https://www.ses.ai

SES AI Corp is engaged in the development and initial production of high-performance Lithium-Metal (Li-Metal) rechargeable battery technologies for electric vehicles (EVs), electric vehicle take-off and landing (eVTOL), and other applications. The company is an integrated Li-Metal battery manufacturer with capabilities in material, cell, module, AI-powered safety algorithms, and recycling.

Executives

Jing Nealis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Rohit Makharia	officer: Pres. & Chief Op. Officer	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Hong Gan	officer: Chief Science Officer	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Anirvan Coomer	director	35 CABOT ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Yongkyu Son	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Kyle Pilkington	officer: Chief Legal Officer	35 CABOT ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Qichao Hu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Gang Li	officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer	35 CABOT ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Tianqi Lithium Hk Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	NO. 10 EAST GAOPENG ROAD, CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610041
Joanne Ban	officer: Chief Legal & Corp. Officer	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542
Robert M Friedland	director	150 BEACH ROAD #25-03, THE GATEWAY WEST, SINGAPORE U0 189720
Temasek Holdings (private) Ltd	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18 TOWER 2, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Tembusu Capital Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891
Sk Inc.	10 percent owner	26, JONG-RO, JONGNO-GU, SEOUL M5 03188
Jangwook Choi	director	1, ROBINSON ROAD, #18-00 AIA TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 048542