Sera Prognostics (Sera Prognostics) Predictability Rank

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What is Sera Prognostics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sera Prognostics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sera Prognostics (Sera Prognostics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Sera Prognostics Inc (NAS:SERA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2749 East Parleys Way, Suite 200, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84109

Website

https://www.seraprognostics.com

Sera Prognostics Inc is a health diagnostic company. It develops diagnostic tests for the early prediction of a woman's individualized risk of premature birth, preeclampsia, and other pregnancy complications.

Executives

John J. Boniface	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Benjamin Jackson	officer: General Counsel	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Austin Aerts	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2479 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Robert Gardner Harrison	officer: Chief Information Officer	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Jane F Barlow	director	6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW, 3RD FLOOR, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Michael R Foley	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS INC, 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 04109
Sandra Aj Lawrence	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Zhenya Lindgardt	director	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS INC, 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Paul Kearney	officer: Chief Data Officer	2749 E. PARLEYS WAY, C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Kim P. Kamdar	director	C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, L.L.C., ONE PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Blue Ox Healthcare Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	239 DAWSON ROAD, HILLSIDE NY 12529
Nichole L. Martin	officer: VP OF Q/R & HIPPA PRIV. OFF	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Marcus Dean Wilson	director	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Joshua Phillips	director	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Nadia Altomare	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC., 2749 EAST PARLEYS WAY, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109